Reflecting on violence...

I'll pause a moment and reflect on the recent violence in Beograd, though I am not sure I really want to do this... I don't want to give the impression that I feel unsafe here, or that BG is somehow an unsafe place for me. Its really not, which leads me to my main point:

I think there are two ways to view the protests and the violence. You can look at it and think 'this is aweful, what a violent place,' etc. Or you can put it into the context of Serbia, and I think you walk away with a really different conclusion. First, as you will see from the below picture, Belgrade Serbs have constant reminders of the recent history.

This building is two blocks from my house, about two blocks from the US Embassy (sans fenetre, but with a nice new paint job...) and one of about 5 buildings badly damaged during the 1999 NATO campaign. On top of this, the 1990's was a very difficult period for all of the Balkans as ideological and identity shifts created fault lines, and eventually a nasty war.

Serbia has been without real strong leadership since the fall of Milosovic (he was rejected by his own people in an election, and then sent to the Hague), and they have been told, since then, that this type of leadership was bad for them. The next President, Djindjic, who oversaw Milosovic's arrest and extradition to the ICTY, was assassinated in 2003. Since then the country has been ruled by a party that has wanted to be radically right wing, but knew that wasn't a smart political move.

In the last 12 months things have begun changing again. First came the election of President Tadic from the centrist, pro-EU, DS Party. Next there way the 2008 election which saw the DSS (often referred to as NS) removed from power, replaced by a DS led coalition. Today the most symbolic event, representing this change, is the arrest and extradition of Radovan Karadzic. It is also worth mentioning that when Kosovo declared independence last March, it was only condemned verbally by Belgrade (and even that line is being tempered these days with talk of a "workable solution"); certainly a far cry from Milosovic's ethnic cleansing in the late 1990's.

So, even though the US Embassy was partially destroyed, and the hooligans took to the streets last night, the city is not on the edge of chaos. People knew there was going to be some violence and fighting, but they weren't really that worried. Right before the demonstration (which led to the clash) started, people and their children were still playing in the park, only a few blocks away. Today everyone is going about there business as usual; Republic Sq has been cleaned up, and even the SRS (the Radical party that held the rally) condemned the violence.

The last thing to keep in mind is that only 15,ooo people turned up for the rally. That may be nothing to sneeze at, but considering that the Radicals provided free bussing from all around the country, into Belgrade, its really a poor showing.

I'm not suggesting that this trend could not be reversed. It could. Just today a study was published, suggesting the SRS was Serbia's fastest growing party, and there is a significant population that fears being swallowed up by the EU and, once again, being forced to redefine there identity.

So, my personal conclusion is that Serbia is not about to roll back the clock and become a pariah state again. But it is not like the integration into Europe is going to be easy either. There are still alot of unconvinced people here, and in many ways, that is totally understandable. In history there are few examples of people willingly submitting them selves to a higher authority. Even if that is one of the main forces to drive history over the centuries.