I have been thinking about this since Skyping with a mentor earlier today.
1) Saakashvili was going for broke, thinking he would override forces (separatists and Russian peacekeepers) in S. Ossetia. His swollen military budget (and ego) and friendship with the West gave him a false sense of power. He thought he could get the Russian border ahead of Russian re-enforcements and consolidate. Maybe he also underestimated Russian resolve to control the province. Finally, he may also have counted on a strong NATO/US/EU response to Russian retaliation, forcing the Russian forces back.
or...
2) Saakashvili made this move to enhance his own power, and consolidate his position within the Western hierarchy. I came to this thought because what the end effect of his actions are, at this point, is an exposure of the West's inability to exert any control over Russia in this region. It is plain for everyone to see that Russia can regain its old Soviet sphere of influence if it felt the need. The speed at which Russian forces over ran the Georgians was rather shocking, particularly to the EU, which has some painful historical memories to a similar effect.
Ok, so what? how does this consolidate Saakashvili? Well, first off, it will play well to Georgians outside of S. Ossetia, because their leader fearlessly stood up and tried to reclaim what would be theirs. Second, it will likely re-invigorate the debate over admission to NATO. If Russia is able to so easily crush Georgia, it is clear that this territory is really their sphere of influence, and not the West's. Admitting Georgia into NATO would allow the West to beef up the forces there, and remove the State from under Russia's thumb.
So, was war the folly of one power hungry leader, or a shrewd Machiavellian move? Who knows... I'll never know all the details to really say. Plus, how would Russia react to Georgian NATO membership? Not well. The reaction would probably also manifest, in part, with a sudden drying up of energy flow into the EU.
1 comment:
The US has been getting upset at Russia lately. Georgia standing up to Russia in the international spotlight was a brilliant move for a few reasons.
I don't think that those "Break-away" areas were that useful for Georgia anyway. They've always been full of baggage because a lot of the citizens wanted nothing to do with Georgia.
Georgia waved those areas in front of Russia, and Russia, like the wild animal it is, took the bait.
Now, the US is going to be very very generous with Georgia in terms of arms sales, military support, and a new location for another part of the US missile defense system that we claim is to prevent missiles from Iran, but everyone knows is to weaken Russia's position.
Regardless of the outcome, I hope that Georgia sees some stability soon. to be honest, I hadn't even really thought of the country for years but because of this conflict I did some research and realized that I would LOVE to take a vacation there.
Once the hostilities end, it'll be a very inexpensive tourist destination for at least a decade!
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